9st 8lbs. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. US Presidential Election Odds; Today's Horse Racing Odds; News. Kelly Criterion. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). You then multiply 2 and 0. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. This isn’t taking into account your odds, probability or perception of value. 00 being returned. Here’s what the variables in the Kelly Criterion formula look like based on these conditions. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. Popular. 00. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. However, the Kelly. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; More Horse Racing Tips. Use the Right Formula. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. The Kelly Criterion only works if one has an advantage over the game they are playing. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. f = 0. When writing, prolific three-year-old Shaquille is set to go off the shortest-priced favourite for this race in the last ten years. I don't have a strong betting opinion in the five-runner Voltigeur at 15:00, though I think layers of Gregory at around 5/4 2. Betfair is where you can get the best horse racing tips for meetings in the UK, Ireland and. L. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Featured Horse Racing. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. Kelly Criterion. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. Monthly Breakdown. 80 and subtract 0. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. 45) – 0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion. 13 March 2021. Horse Racing Tips. Timeform's Tony McFadden highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each Way selection at the Curragh on Sunday. If you are going to place for example 100$ on these two games, you should use 4/6 = 66,7 % = £67 on game 1 and 2/6 = 33,3% = £33 on game 2. "16", "name" => "Horse Racing". Kelly Jr. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. However, you determine after your analysis that Horse A has a 25% chance of winning. 8 – 0. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is. Cricket. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. Satiate to repeat. Kelly says that his edge is $0. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. 0= 1. I wouldn't like to be laying Hamish at 100/1 101. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. 82pts. Highfield Princess enjoyed remarkable success last. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. The question arises because it is widely believed that the Kelly criterion is best for betting online, while, in fact, its use is appropriate only if our betting system has been actually proved profitable. q = 0. 70 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should know plenty more today, having caught the eye in good races on. Few people know racing or betting better than Tony Calvin and so we asked our lead tipster on how he makes the game a. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. Horse Racing Tips: Kelly Criterion,horse racing tips,horse racing,racing tips,horse, racing, tips, Pages. 33). Shaquille 4/5 1. f = 0. If you want to set up a spreadsheet to calculate this for you, the spreadsheet would look like this:Abstract: We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. Remember that value betting is a long term strategy requiring many, many bets to achieve a statistically significant outcome. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. 6. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. Kelly Criterion Formula. You just can't bet at that level. Horse Racing Bet of the Day is replacing our. 40) / 1 = 0. To avoid complicated. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. Daily Racing Multiple. 45)/ (2. 60 x 1. 2$ and his odds are $1$ so you. Named after its inventor, John L. This is a mathematical formula which tells you how much to bet in any given situation. This. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. In this article, I explain how I think you should properly use the Kelly criterion as applied to long. A simplified definition would describe this method. But then the prices started. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. 22 hours ago · Featured Horse Racing. e. Choose your own Horse Racing bet to boost by claiming a MyOddsboost token. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to. Downloadable (with restrictions)! This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. 0. If they leave him alone in front, there. Recent. Editor. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. More. Maximise Profit and Minimise Loss on Horseracing with Kelly Criterion Updated: Feb 07, 19:00 9587 Other Th ere are an enormous number of Staking Systems out there, wherepunters dont just use, a level staking plan, or a feel for a b꧂et,but have a strict and strategic betting staking plan. 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. 40) / 1. It is great for horse racing fans, as you. K. 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. The first step in using. German Bundesliga. Kelly gambling problem, and relate it to classical Markowitz portfolio optimization. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. Ascot - Saturday 15:40 - Back Simca Mille. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. This concept goes back to the days of horse racing, where there were. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: . Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. Let us recall the basic elements of Kelly's horse race model []. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. . It is a simple…Whether you’re looking to back winners, find each-way value picks or place multiple bets, Betting. Only Starman (Evens) and Harry Angel (6/4. Timeform best bets. 35 = 0. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with all In its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Lose weight. The Kelly criterion is one model of investment money management, but it’s not the only one. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. click title for. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Euro 2024. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. By three laps. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. An AT&T’s Bell Lab scientist and researcher, John Larry Kelly Jr. k. Kelly Staking is in its simplest form, your edge divided by the fractional price your’re backing at. We are giving you two options on how to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. Racing Results & Replays. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. The best staking plan debate. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 Pride to spring a surprise at Lingfield; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back 20/1 shot to tear it up at Cheltenham on. 5 which equals a stake of 16. Cricket. “Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J. Venera. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. 52 Q = 1-0. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. A. This post provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion, which will hopefully provide additional insight. it did not take long for the gambling community to further develop the formula to apply it to horse racing. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionThe Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can be used to determine the optimal amount of money to bet on an event based on the bettor’s perceived edge or advantage. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. 55)-0. provide sports betting tips, news and analysis for Australian punters. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. Then, you divide 0. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds at the. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. 40)-0. 30 June 2010. and making a $10\%$ return. 00 x 0. For any queries relating to. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. How big a buy-in should you be willing to pay? Suppose you're horse racing, and you think that 2 of the horses are priced wrong, how much should you bet on each?. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. The 20/1 21. There are. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. B = 1 (decimal odds of 2. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Our bet increase will be 2% of that 25% profit ($250 x 2% = $5), so our previous bet amount of $20 will increase by $5, thus, $20 + $5 = a new bet size of $25. So, our new starting bankroll is $1250, our new target profit equals $312. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. Kevin Blake's horse racing tips for Saturday come at Newmarket with a 33/1 each-way bet on The Very Man in the feature Cesarewitch Stakes and one in the 15:15 on the same cardNewbury - 14:25 - Back Rainbow Dreamer each-way @ 40/1 41. T&Cs apply. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. 60 – 0. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal to noise ratios. 2) From another angle. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Without this component, it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a bettor does. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. By three laps. 55)-0. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. Today’s Betting Tips. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. For any queries relating to Betting. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. Euro 2024 Qualifier Tips: Seven of the best bets from Saturday's matches. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Alex Fielding. Rugby World Cup Final. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. The two-year-old races at Royal Ascot are always a source of great excitement and expectation amongst both the racing and bloodstock fraternities. Featured Horse Racing. This is how the simplified Kelly looks. Cricket. Because of its theoretical advances in anticipating events and avoiding risks, the application of the Kelly Criterion in gambling spreads very quickly, such as the poker game blackjack in casinos and the popular horse racing and greyhound racing in Europe. Now live in 25 states, this. Next, you take 0. THE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. Andrew Asquith. Premier. There's no need to spend hours crunching Kelly Criterion numbers anymore. 24 on the Exchange have four decent horses. You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1;. Dimitar Berbatov. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. Italian Serie A. He ran his two seasonal best RPRs of 162 and 163 in his first two outings last year, while in 2021, he won the Haldo Gold Cup, won in 2020, and won his Maide Hurdle first time out in 2018. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. Back Test your. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. 25 visually looked very smart when doing his best work at the finish over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas, backing up his ten-length demolition job on. Kelly Jr. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. Eat healthy. 80. Premier. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. I think he was right. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;The Kelly Criterion is a money-management formula that calculates the optimal amount you should bet when there’s a difference between the true odds and the given odds. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a punter does. while reducing volatility. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 18/1 ex-pointer on rules debut at Stratford; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double. According to the Kelly Formula you should bet 4% of your fund on game 1 and 2% of your fund on game 2. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. Royal Ascot - 15:40: Lay Bluestocking. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. Minnis. A head the other way this month would have seen a profit, but the bedding-in period is now over, and we look to kick on in August. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. If we did this with a stake of £100, when both those orders matched, we would. 20. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. Criterion has raced at Ascot-GB, Caulfield-AUS, Randwick-AUS, Flemington-AUS, Moonee Valley. Team2 wins. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. Horse Racing; Sports; Strategy; Tools; Punting Stars. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the. What Are Kelly Betting Systems?Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. The ultimate value betting calculator. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. 0= 1. 5 decimally), the equation gives you (((40*2. Kelly Criterion – Background. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is licensed and regulated by the . Make the most of horse racing. PointsBet, an Australian-based sportsbook with a significant market share in the US, launched the PointsBet Horse Racing app ahead of the 2023 Triple Crown series. It’s free and easy to use. Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick;. Monks Dream started at 150/1 and never figured on his debut in a big-field novice event at York on his debut in October, but he attracted. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. 2 days ago · Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. e. where. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. It was first repurposed as a formula to identify an optimal betting system in horse racing. Kelly Strategy Bet Calculator. Kelly published his findings in a paper "A new interpretation of the information. 00 in decimal odds). The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to. L. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Spanish LaLiga. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. Read his column and bet with Betfair!Benjamin P. In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. Well, duh, the title is The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and Stock Market. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator horse racing or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. com. Its status is as prominent as "rotation matrix" in the field of digital lotto. 52x1 – 0. , discovered the Kelly criterion in 1956 in New Jersey. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. 5 Ways to Grow Your Bankroll in 2019! By Ray Wallin. In sports betting, this formula is used to decide the optimal amount of money to place in a bet. On 40. Here at Betting. I would describe it as the ability to spot and identify the very smallest details of a horse's performance in a race and correctly interpret the significance and. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK. NAP. The first step in using the Kelly Criterion for horse racing betting is to analyze various factors that affect the outcome of the race. Football. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. Glenn, and was bred in by . Cheltenham NAP - 16:00 - Back Brechin Castle. If 3 bets were made every week, it would take The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. , 2011), which. Brookhouse. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Twitter user @optibrebs recently made me aware of the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. L. It's most useful to determine the size of a position you should take. Kelly Jr.